Robust Estimation of Self-Exciting Point Process Models with Application to Neuronal Modeling

We consider the problem of estimating self-exciting point process models from limited binary observations, where the history of the process serves as the covariate. We analyze the performance of two classes of estimators: l1-regularized maximum likelihood and greedy estimation for a discrete version of the Hawkes process and characterize the sampling tradeoffs required for stable recovery in the non-asymptotic regime. Our results extend those of compressed sensing for linear and generalized linear models with i.i.d. covariates to point processes with highly inter-dependent covariates. We further provide simulation studies as well as application to real spiking data from mouse’s lateral geniculate nucleus which chime in accordance with our theoretical predictions.